{"id":2300,"date":"2020-03-11T22:25:39","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T13:25:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/?p=2300"},"modified":"2020-05-08T16:12:53","modified_gmt":"2020-05-08T07:12:53","slug":"cdc%e3%81%ae%e3%82%b5%e3%83%bc%e3%83%99%e3%82%a4%e3%83%a9%e3%83%b3%e3%82%b9%e3%82%a2%e3%83%ab%e3%82%b4%e3%83%aa%e3%82%ba%e3%83%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/?p=2300","title":{"rendered":"CDC\u306e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d9\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>CDC(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)<\/h1>\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u5b89\u500d\u7dcf\u7406\u5927\u81e3\u3082\u3053\u306e\u8a00\u8449\u3092\u899a\u3048\u305f\u6a21\u69d8\u3067\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u7248CDC\u300d\u3092\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u304c\u306a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u696d\u754c\u306e\u4eba\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u30ac\u30a4\u30c9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u305d\u306e\u5468\u8fba\u3067\u304a\u76ee\u306b\u304b\u304b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u79c1\u306f\u30011995\u5e74\u516c\u958b\u306e\u6620\u753b\u300c\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30d6\u30ec\u30a4\u30af\u300d\u3067\u521d\u3081\u3066\u8033\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u30021999\u5e74\u306b\u7559\u5b66\u3057\u305fFDA\u3068\u306f\u3001\u540c\u3058HHS\u306e\u4e0b\u90e8\u7d44\u7e54\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308aFDA\u3068CDC\u306f\u7d44\u7e54\u56f3\u4e0a\u306f\u6a2a\u4e26\u3073\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002CDC\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3044\u3063\u305f\u4ed5\u4e8b\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f\u696d\u52d9\u306f\u591a\u5c90\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002CDC\u306e\u4ed5\u4e8b\u3092\u8eab\u8fd1\u306b\u611f\u3058\u305f\u306e\u306f\u30011999\u5e74\u7559\u5b66\u3057\u305f\u5e74\u306b\u3001\u30c6\u30ec\u30d3\u3067\u300c\u9ce5\u306e\u6b7b\u9ab8\u304b\u3089\u897f\u30ca\u30a4\u30eb\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u304c\u691c\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u767a\u8868\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7c73\u56fd\u306b\u306f\u9ce5\u306e\u6b7b\u9ab8\u306e\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u691c\u67fb\u3092\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u884c\u653f\u6a5f\u95a2\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u9a5a\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u306f\u591c\u9593\u306b\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u3067\u4f4f\u5b85\u8857\u306b\u6bba\u866b\u5264\u3092\u307e\u304f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u304c\u653e\u9001\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u591c\u9593\u306b\u6bba\u866b\u5264\u3092\u307e\u304f\u306e\u3067\u7a93\u3092\u9589\u3081\u3066\u5bdd\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u653e\u9001\u304c\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30c6\u30ec\u30d3\u306e\u653e\u9001\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\u3001\u300c\u4eba\u4f53\u306b\u306f\u7121\u5bb3\u306a\u6bba\u866b\u5264\u3092\u307e\u304f\u304c\u3001\u5ff5\u306e\u305f\u3081\u7a93\u3092\u9589\u3081\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3088\u3046\u306b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e8b\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b21\u306b\u79c1\u304c\u76ee\u306b\u3057\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001FDA\u306eCBER\u3068\u5171\u540c\u3057\u3066\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306e\u526f\u53cd\u5fdc\u3092\u96c6\u3081\u3066\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u696d\u52d9\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30d1\u30d4\u30ed\u30fc\u30de\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u300c\u5b50\u5bae\u9838\u304c\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u300d\u3092\u77e5\u308a\u5408\u3044\u305f\u3061\u3068\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3092\u899a\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u6642\u65e5\u672c\u3067\u306f\u4e0a\u5e02\u524d\u3067\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3059\u3067\u306b\u4e0a\u5e02\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u306fStill\u75c5\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u526f\u53cd\u5fdc\u304c\u5831\u544a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5185\u5bb9\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<h1>\u30b5\u30fc\u30d9\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0<\/h1>\n<p>\u305d\u3057\u3066\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u80ba\u708e\u306e\u9a12\u304e\u3067\u3001\u4f1d\u67d3\u75c5\u306e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d9\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u7d50\u679c\u6b21\u7b2c\u3067\u306f\u65e9\u3081\u306e\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3092\u65e5\u672c\u3067\u3082\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e8b\u3067\u3001\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u7248CDC\u300d\u3092\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3001\u826f\u304f\u5224\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304c\u305d\u306e\u6a5f\u80fd\u3092\u62c5\u3046\u6a5f\u95a2\u304c\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u5168\u304f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u8a33\u3067\u3082\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u3001\u3055\u3066\u304a\u304d\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u306e\u30b5\u30fc\u30d9\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u3069\u3093\u306a\u98a8\u306b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\u5c11\u3057\u8abf\u3079\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.semanticscholar.org\/paper\/Getting-started-with-outbreak-detection-H%C3%B6hle-Riebler\/1805d5cdcc1004a739b525102805e69cf01085af\">Getting started with outbreak detection\u3000\uff08\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30d6\u30ec\u30a4\u30af\u3092\u691c\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\u59cb\u3081\u3088\u3046\uff09<\/a>\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8ad6\u6587\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068CDC algorithm\u3068\u3044\u3046\u624b\u6cd5\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u65b0\u305f\u306b\u767a\u75c7\u3057\u305f\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u3092\u9031\u3054\u3068\u306b\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u3066\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u767a\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u3092\u691c\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3069\u3093\u306a\u3075\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3001\u8ad6\u7406\u7684\u306a\u4e8b\u3084\u6570\u5f0f\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u3066\u826f\u304f\u5224\u3089\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3088\u308a\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306eCOVID-19\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff083\u670810\u65e5\u307e\u3067\u306e\u96c6\u8a08\uff09\u3092\u6d41\u3057\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u3069\u3046\u3044\u3063\u305f\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30d7\u30c3\u30c8\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3001\u306a\u304c\u3081\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<h1>\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3048\u305a\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3059<\/h1>\n<p>\u56f3\u306fFarrington\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u306e\u51fa\u529b\u3067\u3059\u3002\u56db\u89d2\u3044\u67f1\u30671\u65e5\u3054\u3068\u306e\u5ea6\u6570\u304c\u8868\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u53f3\u7aef\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u304c3\u67086\u65e5\u3002\u521d\u3081\u306e\u30a2\u30e9\u30fc\u30c8\u304c1\u670828\u65e5\uff083\u4f8b\u5831\u544a\u306e\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Rplot.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"display: inline; background-image: none;\" title=\"Rplot\" src=\"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Rplot_thumb.png\" alt=\"Rplot\" width=\"244\" height=\"147\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u5b9f\u306f\u3001CDC\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u306e\u6d41\u884c\u3092\u30e2\u30cb\u30bf\u30fc\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u306f\u9031\u3054\u3068\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3057\u304b\u89e3\u6790\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u77ed\u671f\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u65e5\u3054\u3068\u3067\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u306bCDC\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u3068\u5217\u6319\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u3000Farrington\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u3067\u96c6\u8a08\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3068\u308a\u3042\u3048\u305a\u3001\u904e\u53bb50\u65e5\u5206\u306e\u5831\u544a\u4ef6\u6570\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185\u306a\u306e\u304b\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u5146\u3057\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u65e5\u3054\u308d\u304b\u3089\u6563\u767a\u7684\u306b\u5831\u544a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u75be\u60a3\u3067\u3001\u6025\u306b\u5897\u3048\u3066\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u5146\u3057\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u3092\u65e9\u671f\u306b\u767a\u898b\u3059\u308b\u76ee\u7684\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u9069\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u69d8\u3067\u3001COVID-19\u306e\u69d8\u306b\u5168\u304f\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u75be\u60a3\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6b8b\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>A statistical algorithm for the early detection of outbreaks of infectious disease, Farrington, C.P.,Andrews, N.J, Beale A.D. and Catchpole, M.A. (1996), J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 159, 547-563.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2983331?seq=1\">https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2983331?seq=1<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>library(&#8220;surveillance&#8221;)<br \/>\nlibrary(readxl)<\/p>\n<p>X0020_STS &lt;- read_excel(&#8220;COVID_STS.xlsx&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p>CovidDisProg &lt;- create.disProg(week = X0020_STS$week,<br \/>\nobserved = X0020_STS$observed,<br \/>\nstate = X0020_STS$state,<br \/>\nstart = c(2018, 1),<br \/>\nfreq=365,<br \/>\nepochAsDate=TRUE)<\/p>\n<p>#Do surveillance for the last 50 days.<br \/>\nn &lt;- length(CovidDisProg$observed)<br \/>\n#Set control parameters.<br \/>\ncontrol &lt;- list(b=2,w=3,range=(n-50):n,reweight=TRUE, verbose=FALSE,alpha=0.01)<br \/>\nres &lt;- algo.farrington(CovidDisProg,control=control)<br \/>\n#Plot the result.<br \/>\nplot(res,disease=&#8221;COVID-19&#8243;,method=&#8221;Farrington&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p># sts.cdc &lt;- algo.cdc(CovidDisProg, control = control)<br \/>\n# &lt;&lt;&lt;error&gt;&gt;&gt; algo.cdc only works for weekly data.<br \/>\n# plot(sts.cdc, legend.opts=NULL)<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f\u96c6\u8a08\u6e08\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/gis.jag-japan.com\/covid19jp\/?fbclid=IwAR3FWAcLkQvXDTUUMtNwm7qRFhplIxSREML5m-rrPXWzfz7IxVANOBdSeSY<\/p>\n<div class='w3eden'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"\u30a2\u30a4\u30b3\u30f3\"   src=\"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/xlsx.png\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/?wpdmpro=covid_sts'>COVID_STS<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 \u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 32.72 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary ' rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/?wpdmpro=covid_sts&wpdmdl=2307&refresh=69e012250ebe61776292389\">\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CDC(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) \u6700\u8fd1\u5b89\u500d\u7dcf\u7406\u5927\u81e3\u3082\u3053\u306e\u8a00\u8449\u3092\u899a\u3048\u305f\u6a21\u69d8\u3067\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u7248CDC\u300d\u3092\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u304c\u306a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u696d\u754c\u306e\u4eba\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u30ac\u30a4\u30c9\u30e9\u30a4&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Rplot_thumb.png","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9b6zl-B6","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2300\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/plaza.umin.ac.jp\/~OIO\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}